Companies whose entire platform is AI/ML-driven drug design. Highest upside if AI-in-pharma delivers, highest wipeout risk if it doesn't. Small caps → size positions.
| Tkr | MktCap | Price | 6M | 1Y | %52W | AI Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA ββ | $28.8B | $72.50 | +133% | +153% | 98% | AI-native mRNA sequence design + rapid vaccine iteration — the platform IS the AI |
| ABSI ββ | $1.9B | $11.11 | +222% | +329% | 90% | Generative AI antibody design (de novo) — deals with AstraZeneca / Almirall |
| ABCL β | $2.3B | $7.60 | +120% | +118% | 86% | AI antibody discovery platform — deals with Regeneron / Pfizer / Moderna |
| CDXS | $0.2B | $2.39 | +46% | −0.4% | 49% | AI-enzyme engineering — Novartis / Merck / Codexis Performance |
| SDGR | $1.2B | $16.39 | −8% | −21% | 43% | Physics-based computational drug design (older AI stack, needs re-rating) |
| RXRX | $1.9B | $3.67 | −11% | −29% | 20% | Cell-image AI drug discovery — NVDA partner but stock struggling |
| NAUT | $0.2B | $1.84 | −5% | +152% | 33% | AI single-molecule proteomics — too speculative, watch only |
Mega-cap pharma that has made explicit AI-drug-discovery / AI-trial-design commitments. Rally in this tier lags because the market treats these as "old pharma"; catch-up trade if AI narrative extends beyond semis.
| Tkr | MktCap | PE/FPE | PEG | 6M | 1Y | %52W | AI Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY β | $1.12T | 43/27 | 0.94 | +10.5% | +54% | 92% | AI drug discovery + GLP-1 — largest pharma cap-weighted AI story |
| MRK | $310B | 35/13 | 2.17 | +17.6% | +53% | 91% | AI clinical trial optimization + oncology pipeline (Keytruda succession) |
| JNJ | $611B | 29/20 | 2.19 | +22.4% | +63% | 94% | AI in diagnostics + medtech; steady mega-cap AI-adjacent |
| AMGN | $195B | 25/15 | 4.21 | +9.6% | +24% | 75% | AI antibody + obesity pipeline; deals with Xaira / Verge |
| NVS | $282B | 22/16 | 2.55 | +10.7% | +25% | 72% | AI drug discovery (Isomorphic Labs partner) |
| AZN | $285B | 28/16 | 1.29 | −1.7% | +32% | 63% | Absci partnership + oncology AI — lagging cell, catch-up candidate |
| BIIB | $31B | 23/13 | 2.06 | +18.6% | +61% | 90% | Alzheimer's AI biomarker + neuro pipeline |
| BMY | $115B | 16/9 | — | +4.3% | +19% | 68% | Modest AI programs; value play with hair on it |
| GILD | $156B | 17/13 | 1.44 | +0.9% | +13% | 37% | HIV + oncology; AI-adjacent only |
| GSK | $103B | 13/10 | 1.85 | +4.5% | +32% | 60% | AI partnerships (23andMe data + Google DeepMind); value pharma |
| VRTX | $126B | 30/23 | 2.14 | +8.3% | +10% | 93% | CF + gene-editing partnerships; premium bio, limited AI narrative |
| REGN | $65B | 15/12 | 1.02 | −20% | +17% | 35% | Deep drawdown — Eylea competition; AbCellera partner but story hurt |
| PFE | $136B | 18/8 | — | −4.5% | −5% | 14% | Post-COVID reset; AI programs exist but story dominated by Seagen digestion |
Where AI is already generating alpha. These names have surged as the AI-in-medicine narrative developed independently of drug pipelines. Highest-conviction Bio/Drug AI tier by track record.
| Tkr | MktCap | PE/FPE | 6M | 1Y | %52W | AI Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWST ββ | $6.4B | — | +211% | +178% | 98% | AI-designed synthetic DNA for drug discovery — picks-and-shovels of AI bio |
| GH ββ | $22.6B | — | +68% | +237% | 115% | Guardant — AI liquid biopsy oncology; multi-cancer early detection |
| ILMN β | $27.8B | 33/31 | +37% | +87% | 101% | AI genomic interpretation on NGS platform; DRAGEN pipeline |
| NTRA β | $39.6B | — | +19% | +72% | 101% | Natera — AI prenatal + oncology / transplant testing |
| TEM β | $11.1B | — | +0.2% | +3.6% | 32% | Tempus AI — the "Palantir of oncology"; enterprise AI + clinical data |
| CDNA | $1.5B | —/26 | +52% | +55% | 98% | CareDx — AI transplant diagnostics |
| ADPT | $3.6B | — | +34% | +100% | 106% | Adaptive Bio — AI immune profiling |
| CRSP | $5.4B | — | +3% | +15% | 33% | CRISPR — AI-in-target-ID adjacent; gene-editing hedge |
| PACB | $0.5B | — | +2% | +35% | 40% | PacBio — long-read sequencing; struggling but AI-adjacent |
The "AI SW deep-discount" analog of the bio world. AI is being embedded in trial design / lab automation / life-sciences CRM, but names sold off 15-30% in H1 2026. If AI-in-pharma narrative catches up, this tier catches a bid.
| Tkr | MktCap | PE/FPE | PEG | 6M | 1Y | %52W | AI Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VEEV | $29.9B | 33/18 | 1.55 | −18% | −35% | 22% | Life-sciences CRM + AI clinical-trial mgmt — deep discount |
| IQV | $33.9B | 25/14 | 1.48 | −10.5% | +25% | 53% | AI clinical-trial services + real-world evidence platform |
| TMO | $190.8B | 28/19 | 1.99 | −12% | +22% | 46% | Life-sciences tools mega-cap; AI in lab automation |
| DHR | $137.1B | 37/21 | 2.50 | −16% | −4% | 40% | Danaher — life-sciences tools + Beckman Coulter diagnostics AI |
| A | $37.7B | 27/20 | 2.16 | −3% | +11% | 48% | Agilent — AI-in-mass-spec / chromatography analytics |
| MEDP | $15.5B | 34/29 | 2.70 | −5% | +69% | 74% | Medpace — premium CRO; AI trial optimization |
| ICLR | $13.4B | 81/15 | 6.32 | −4% | +18% | 75% | Icon — CRO, AI trial services |
Medtech that overlaps with AI (surgical robotics, cardiac AI, imaging AI). All three names are in deep drawdown — NOT a rally-catch-up tier yet, but worth monitoring for stabilization.
| Tkr | MktCap | PE/FPE | 6M | 1Y | %52W | AI Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISRG | $142.5B | 49/34 | −30% | −25% | 3% | Intuitive Surgical — AI-assisted surgical robotics; sold off hard |
| ABT | $160.6B | 26/15 | −26% | −32% | 18% | Abbott — diabetes CGM + diagnostics AI |
| MDT | $101.4B | 21/12 | −18% | −11% | 18% | Medtronic — AI surgical navigation + cardiac AI |
Excluded (weak AI narrative or single-name issues): SNY (limited AI) · TAK (limited AI) · HIMS (consumer telehealth, not core AI drug) · TDOC (consumer telehealth, AI-adjacent only) · HALO (specialty) · SHC (sterilization) · SNPS (already covered as AI SW/Semi enabler)
feedback_bio_hedge_on_semi_drop.md.25% Tier 3 AI Dx (ILMN + GH + NTRA + TEM) β highest track record 20% Tier 1 AI-native (MRNA + ABSI + ABCL) β moonshot exposure, half-size 20% Tier 2 Big Pharma AI (LLY + MRK + JNJ + AMGN) β catch-up if narrative extends 20% Tier 4 Beaten-down (VEEV + TMO + DHR) β rerating candidates 10% Cash (opportunistic reload if Tier 3 corrects 20%+) 5% Wildcards (CRSP + TWST + ADPT reload) β small size